IBD/TIPP now has Romney up by five points over the president. Of note: Romney has a twenty point lead with independents, and the president’s lead with women is down to just eight points. And for all of the talk about the 47%, Romney has widened his lead among middle class voters from six to ten points.
Equally notable: For the first time, Romney leads in the RCP average–by 1.5 points. Remember how a few weeks ago there was all sorts of chortling over the fact that Romney hadn’t led in the poll of polls? So much for that talk.
Oh, and as for the electoral college, RCP’s map now has the Obama/Biden share of the vote down to 217. Romney/Ryan are at 181, but this represents a significant drop in electoral votes for the incumbents. Even states that looked to be safely in the Obama/Biden camp–like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin–are now toss-ups. Team Obama still has an easier path to 270 than does Team Romney, but not by as much as they once did.
Apparently, the Obama campaign’s response to all of this is to double down on talk about Big Bird. This is not going over well with Democrats, but I suppose that Team Obama ought to be thanked for making it clear to all and sundry that it is running a fundamentally unserious campaign.
If Team Obama is expecting any help from unions, they are likely to be disappointed, as unions are more likely to help downticket races, and as union members are not nearly as enthusiastic about Barack Obama as they were four years ago–living in the Obama economy will do that to a person, I guess.
So, things are less than good for Team Obama. The president’s fortunes may turn and no eggs have hatched chickens for counting. But at long last, Team Romney is throwing a scare into the opposition. And the scare is a legitimate one.