Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama

by Pejman Yousefzadeh on October 30, 2012

That’s according to ABC News. Without having dived into the polling data, I am pretty sure that Minnesota will cast its electoral votes for the president, though Pennsylvania may be a closer case; it has remained on Romney’s radar for a while. But think of this: If two states once thought to be reliably blue are thinking of going red, how much ground might the president be losing in other places?

I think the momentum is clearly with Romney, but I have a confession to make. While I certainly don’t believe that the president will achieve the margin of victory suggested here, I do think–and this is based on having gone through a number of scenarios–that Barack Obama has more paths to 270 electoral votes than Mitt Romney does, which would suggest that the president is more likely to win. So I guess that the only thing that I can say to readers who want Romney to win is this: Prove me wrong.

Make sure to get out to vote. Tell your friends to get out to vote. Tell your family to get out to vote. Volunteer for the Romney campaign. Make calls. Donate money if possible. Make me eat crow on November 7th.

I’ll be happy to do it. It will be delicious.

  • Stephen

    Put on your bib and select your knife and fork.

  • http://www.facebook.com/tung.yin Tung Yin

    Although I sort of think that Obama is more likely to win, I don’t think the fact that he has more paths to 270 EVs suggests by itself that he’s more likely to win. Don’t we have to consider how likely each path is? I’d rather have fewer paths to 270, so long as they are each highly likely, compared to 43 longshot paths.

Previous post:

Next post: