Whether Mitt Romney was right or not in making the comments he made in the video that got leaked to Mother Jones–and there is reason to believe that Romney was right about much of the substance–today hasn’t been a good day for Romney. Indeed, the past few days haven’t been good for Romney, and while much of that is due to the fact that a great deal of the media is in the tank for Barack Obama, none of that absolves the Romney campaign for its errors of judgment. Successful Republican candidates understand that the media is out to get them and as a consequence, they don’t give the media a target to shoot out. But Mitt Romney has not been a successful Republican candidate thus far.
It’s entirely possible that Romney can turn things around, or that things suddenly start going terribly wrong for the Obama campaign. But I don’t see that happening. The narrative of this campaign appears to be baked in; the Romney campaign is seen as going from stumble to stumble, while Barack Obama uses his opponent’s clumsiness to distract from his own poor record. All of this is a shame; the president was genuinely vulnerable this year, but Romney doesn’t seem to have closed the sale. And while I hope I am wrong, I am afraid that I don’t think he will. Miracles can happen, so I don’t think that Republicans should give up the ship, especially given the fact that the party still has to worry about downticket races. But in my little corner of the Blogosphere, I am prepared to make my prediction. Obama–53%, Romney–47%. And here is what I think that the electoral college map will look like.
A note for commenters who share my political leanings and who don’t like the fact that I have written this post: Let me assure you that I didn’t like writing it either. But I have to call ‘em as I see ‘em. And again, I hope that I am wrong, but in the event that any of you feel like telling me that I am a Nervous Nellie, or that I am throwing in the towel, please spare me. I am making a prediction based on my honest beliefs regarding the state of the race, and how I expect it to turn out. That is all.