I continue to believe that the electoral pull of vice presidential candidates is severely overrated. That having been written . . .
Paul Ryan has propelled Mitt Romney into the lead over President Obama in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin, according to the latest survey from liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling.
Romney edges Obama 48 percent to 47, according to the poll, which has a 2.7 percent margin of error.
That’s a 7 percentage point gain for Romney, who trailed Obama 50 to 44 in the previous PPP poll, taken in July, before Rep. Ryan (R-Wis.) was added to the GOP ticket.
It’s the second consecutive survey of Wisconsin to find Romney has overtaken the president following the selection of Ryan as his running mate. A survey earlier this month from conservative-leaning polling outlet Rasmussen also gave Romney a 48-47 lead in the state.
According to PPP, Ryan has helped shore up the Republican base in Wisconsin. Romney has stretched his lead over Obama among Republicans from 78 percentage points to 88. The former Massachusetts governor has also seen gains among independents in the state, cutting Obama’s 14-point July advantage to only 4.
Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy, Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn, Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 general election voters to determine their voting preferences.
FMWB says this will be a significant blow to Democratic campaign efforts, native son Mitt Romney has climbed into the lead in Michigan’s Presidential contest. The naming of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has delivered a targeted affect on the Michigan and Midwest campaign dynamics. . . .
[. . .]
“Romney has identified a clear game changer if his strategy is to divide the Midwest and blow a bugle in President Obama’s Midwestern Strategy”, states Eric Foster, chief pollster and President of Foster McCollum White & Associates. “Romney may be attempting to isolate Illinois and Pennsylvania by having Michigan and Wisconsin in play. That also limited Obama’s opportunity to strengthen resource and advertising in Ohio and Indiana if Michigan and Wisconsin are competitive”.
In spite of national criticism of the Ryan selection and budget plan, our findings suggest that Michigan voters are viewing both as positives for Romney. 36.11% of Michigan voters are more likely to vote for Romney because of the Paul Ryan selection while only 27.90% are less likely to vote for Romney. That is a positive statistical advantage for Romney of 8.21 points or 29.42%. Tarek Baydoun, statistical analyst for Foster McCollum White Baydoun reflects, “While Romney may have challenges connecting to voters, Paul Ryan seems to humanize him and make him more acceptable to voters like his wife Ann Romney does.”
Additionally the Ryan Budget plan is supported by a plurality of Michigan voters. 47.99% support Ryan’s budget which includes a major overhaul of Medicare and Social Security while 45.01% oppose the plan. What is statistically interesting is the fact that 41.59% of Michigan voters strongly oppose the plan and only 34.77% strongly support the plan. The margin for Ryan’s plan comes from the soft supporters, who outnumber the soft opponents by a four to one margin (13.22% to 3.42%).
“The past week for President Obama was not helpful to his numbers,” per Eric Foster, chief pollster for Foster McCollum White Baydoun. “The campaign is very fluid, as we identified in June, the President’s campaign needs to shift its focus towards presenting more of a business case narrative of why voters should re-elect President Obama while better defining why Romney/Ryan is not good for America.”
“The data prompts further study by the Obama team, Democratic Party and related supporters into the declining support for the President in what was a safe state for him,” stated Attorney Tarek Baydoun, statistical analyst for Foster McCollum White Baydoun. “In a state with a significant senior citizen voting population, the overall support for Congressman Ryan’s budget plan must be very troubling for the President and his team.”
I have never heard of Foster McCollum, so I have no idea whether its work is reputable. But if it can be taken seriously, then the Obama-Biden ticket may well be in a lot of trouble in a region of the country whose votes it took for granted.