Look how poorly Barbara Boxer polls against all of the Republican candidates seeking their party’s nomination for the U.S. Senate seat Boxer currently holds. She is barely beating Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore, and getting beaten by Tom Campbell. In each case, she is polling under 50%. Well under 50%.
For an incumbent, that’s horrible. For Republicans, that’s a reason to lick chops. It remains possible, of course, for Boxer to win at the end–California is a heavily Democratic state, after all–but the odds against her winning are looking longer and longer.